Share
He throws a die and reports that it is a six. The probability that it is actually a six is
A: 38
B: 18
C: 14
D: 12
ReportQuestion
Explanation:
Let R,S be the event that the man reports that is a six and the throw is a six respectively.
P(R|S)= the probability that the man reports it is a six when it is a six = probability of speak truth =34
P(R|S')= the probability that the man reports it is a six when it is not a six = probability of not speak truth =14
P(S)= the probability that throw is six =16
P(S')= the probability that throw is not a six =1-16=6-16=56
Now we have to find the probability that the throw is actually six when the man reports it is a six i.e. P(S|R)
By the Bayes theorem,
P(S|R)=P(S)P(R|S)P(S)P(R|S)+P(S')P(R|S')
=16341634+5614
=324324+524=3245+324=324248=38
Final Answer:
Hence the correct option is (A).i.e 38
solved
5
wordpress
4 mins ago
5 Answer
70 views
+22
Leave a reply